Document:Notes from colleagues in the Baltic States who are monitoring Russia carefully
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Notes from colleagues in the Baltic States who are monitoring Russia carefully
18 03 2018
Russians are working flat out across the region to exert influence wherever they have it, to get their version of the Skripal case into people’s minds.
Their particular position is: “This is a judicial issue and there is no evidence that Russia did this”. They are pushing everything towards “Procedure”, demanding facts, hard proof, access to the evidence etc. “If you can’t produce this, how dare you blame us?” this gets quite a lot of traction, especially with the Russian speakers. We need to check how it goes down with Russian diasporas elsewhere in Europe.
Of course, in reality, this was a military operation, all done in the clear understanding that the attack would be investigated. So, they will have tried to leave no such evidence, and may even have left false evidence. We need to look for signs of Maskirovka, voyennaya khitrost’ (military cunning), and reflexive control.
A criminal investigation alone will not throw these essential clues up, and is unlikely to yield sufficient judicial evidence. We need to be looking at, and explaining, this attack from a political and military-intelligence perspective. That means educating our audience to understand how Russia sees this world as being at war.