2017 Manchester Gorton by-election
 | |
| Date | 4 May 2017 |
|---|---|
| Description | Timed to coincide with an anticipated UK General Election |
The 2017 Manchester Gorton by-election, caused by the death on 26 February 2017 of 86-year-old Labour MP Sir Gerald Kaufman, is expected to be held on 4 May 2017 (the date that some political commentators have suggested for the 2017 UK General Election).[1] The 2017 UK local elections and the 2017 Greater Manchester mayoral election are also scheduled for 4 May 2017.[2][3]
Background
The seat has been held, with various boundary alterations, by Labour since the 1935 General Election,[4] and by Gerald Kaufman from 1983 until his death. The Green Party came second in the 2015 General Election, whilst the Liberal Democrats came second in every general election before that since 1997. Labour hold every council seat in the constituency.[5]
From the Fifth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies the seat incorporates the electoral wards (since the 2010 General Election) of:
- Fallowfield, Gorton North, Gorton South, Levenshulme, Longsight, Rusholme and Whalley Range.[6]
In the EU Referendum, it was statistically estimated that the constituency voted in favour of remaining in the EU. However as Gorton was only part of the Manchester counting area, the exact result is unknown. Yet, through demographic modelling, the Remain share in the constituency has been estimated to be 62% by Chris Hanretty of the University of East Anglia,[7] and 61% by Number Cruncher Politics.
Candidates and campaign
The local Constituency Labour Party (CLP) has been under special measures since 2004, so candidate selection will be run by the National Executive Committee. The Manchester Evening News reported that a debate has been taking place for many years within the Gorton CLP over who would succeed Kaufman, and that the party is experiencing severe internal conflict as a result, with many local figures said to be considering putting themselves forward.
If there is any challenge to Labour in Gorton, it won't come from UKIP or the Tories. Rather, this is a relatively rare constituency defined by the battle on the centre-left, between Labour and the Lib Dems. It will be an interesting testing ground for the Lib Dems and their comeback since the referendum. They used to enjoy great success at local council level and got within 7,000 of Kaufman - who must have banked a large personal vote - in 2010, before falling right back in the massive Lib-Lab swing of 2015. Nick Clegg's infamous betrayal on tuition fees certainly played a part. As a result, Labour got a massive 67% of the vote, with the Greens taking second on just 10%.
Much of those swings involved the university vote - either students or staff - and they will be key players in this by-election story as 27% of the population are in full-time education. This segment of liberal-left opinion has swung between both parties in recent decades and are precisely the type backing the Lib Dems' full-throated opposition to Brexit.
In order to seriously challenge Labour, the Lib Dems will need to maximise these votes and hope for a very low turnout. It is a huge ask. This is a very deprived constituency that has suffered during the austerity years, earning the Lib Dems plenty of enemies. They look booked for clear second place, but anything over 30% would be an achievement and they'll need at least 40% to win.[8]
References
- ↑
{{URL|example.com|optional display text}} - ↑ Singh, Matt (2017-02-27). "Manchester Gorton by-election – Number Cruncher Politics". Number Cruncher Politics. Retrieved 2017-03-02.Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css must have content model "Sanitized CSS" for TemplateStyles (current model is "Scribunto").
- ↑
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{{URL|example.com|optional display text}} - ↑ Fifth periodical report – Volume 3 Mapping for the London Boroughs and the Metropolitan Counties, The Stationery Office, 26 February 2007, ISBN 0-10-170322-8Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css must have content model "Sanitized CSS" for TemplateStyles (current model is "Scribunto").
- ↑ "Revised estimates of leave vote in Westminster constituencies". Retrieved 27 February 2017.Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css must have content model "Sanitized CSS" for TemplateStyles (current model is "Scribunto").
- ↑ "Manchester Gorton By-Election: Beleagured Corbyn should get some respite"
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