2016 Richmond Park by-election

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Event.png 2016 Richmond Park by-election  Rdf-entity.pngRdf-icon.png
Kramer Olney Tonge.png
Lib Dem candidate Sarah Olney (centre) flanked by Susan Kramer and Jenny Tonge

The 2016 Richmond Park by-election, triggered by the resignation of the Conservative Party Member of Parliament Zac Goldsmith on 25 October 2016 over the Government's proposal for a third runway at London's Heathrow Airport, is scheduled to take place on 1 December 2016.[1][2]

Background

When first elected in the 2010 General Election and on several subsequent occasions, Zac Goldsmith promised that he would resign if the government were to support a third runway at Heathrow.

Following his re-election in the 2015 General Election, he stood as the Conservative candidate in the 2016 London Mayoral election, losing to Sadiq Khan.

Theresa May's government announced on 25 October 2016 that it would support a third runway at Heathrow, and Goldsmith immediately resigned his seat.[3]

Candidates

Zac Goldsmith

Zac Goldsmith said he would stand as an Independent Conservative.[4][5][6] The Conservative Party decided not to put up an official candidate against him, possibly because the local party are reported to be supportive of Goldsmith's stance, and putting up a candidate could split the vote and lead to the Lib Dems winning the seat.[7][8][9]

Lib Dems

The seat was formerly held by Lib Dems Jenny Tonge, Baroness Tonge (1997-2005) and Susan Kramer, Baroness Kramer (2005-2010). On 30 October 2016, the Liberal Democrats confirmed Sarah Olney, who was selected to fight the constituency in the event of a snap election, as their candidate for the by-election.[10] Olney joined the Liberal Democrats in May 2015, following the General Election. She lives locally in North Kingston and works as an accountant at the National Physical Laboratory in Teddington.[11]

Labour

The day after Goldsmith's resignation, three Blairite Labour Party MPs suggested that Labour might choose not to stand to maximise the chance of defeating Goldsmith in protest at his support for Brexit and his negative campaign against Sadiq Khan in the mayoral contest.[12] However, other Labour MPs rejected the suggestion and the party announced it is in the process of choosing a candidate.[13][14]

Two high-profile candidates have already been nominated unofficially: Paul Mason and Sir Tony Robinson,[15] and the Richmond Park Constituency Labour Party is expected to confirm its selection shortly.[16]

Others

The Green Party leaders have hinted the party may not stand a candidate for fear of splitting the vote. However they have stressed that the decision is for the local party to decide. The party shares an anti-Brexit and anti-Heathrow expansion stance with the Liberal Democrats.[17]

The UK Independence Party, the only other party to stand in the 2015 General Election, have chosen not to put forward a candidate and have endorsed Goldsmith.[18]

Campaign

This will be the first UK by-election in which the Conservatives have declined to field an official candidate in a seat they held since the Bristol South East by-election in 1963, which was triggered to allow Tony Benn to regain the seat he was disqualified from holding upon his inheritance of the Stansgate viscounty.[19] Conservative MP Alec Shelbrooke criticised the decision by the party not to stand.[20]

The Liberal Democrats also oppose a third runway at Heathrow. They hope to win the seat, which they held from 1997 to 2010. They will be campaigning on an anti-Brexit position, noting Goldsmith's own support for Brexit whereas the area strongly voted for Remain in the 2016 EU Referendum.[21] The constituency is estimated to have had a 72% support for Remain.[22] Goldsmith's Mayoral campaign is also expected to become a focal point of campaigning.[23] The Liberal Democrat campaign started quickly, with leader Tim Farron first visiting the constituency on 26 October.[24]

The Daily Mirror said that bookmakers have Goldsmith as clear favourite, although the Liberal Democrats were favourite for a period.[25] Channel 4 News reported senior Liberal Democrats think odds predicting the Liberal Democrats would do well have been over-stated.[26][27]

Goldsmith said on 28 October that he would be partly funding his campaign himself. He also did not rule out the possibility of re-joining the Conservative Party after the next general election.[28]

A poll released by BMG Research on 28 October showed Goldsmith on 56% of the vote to Olney's 29%. An as-yet unnamed Labour candidate attracted 11% of the vote, with the Green Party and UKIP tied on 2% each. Asked about the main issues in the election, respondents identified Brexit (25%), Goldsmith's records and views (22%), and Heathrow expansion (21%) as the main issues. Goldsmith supporters were more focused on his record and Heathrow, while Olney supporters focused on Brexit and the Conservative government's record. Labour supporters also identified Brexit as their main consideration. Overall, the poll found 60% opposition to the third runway at Heathrow, 25% support with 14% undecided.[29]

72% Bremain

The constituency is not co-terminous with any local authority, and as the results in the EU Referendum on 23 June 2016 were reported by local authority, the exact referendum vote in Richmond Park is not known. However, Chris Hanretty, a Reader in Politics at the University of East Anglia, estimated through a demographic model that Richmond Park saw one of the dozen lowest Leave votes in the entire country. His latest estimates suggest that 27.7% of Richmond Park voters voted 'Leave', and thus that 72.3% voted Remain.[30]

References

  1. ↑ "UKIP backing Zac Goldsmith in by-election - BBC News". bbc.co.uk. 1970-01-01. Retrieved 2016-10-30.Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css must have content model "Sanitized CSS" for TemplateStyles (current model is "Scribunto").
  2. ↑ "By-election date set after Zac Goldsmith resigns as Tory MP". Stv.tv. Retrieved 2016-10-30.Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css must have content model "Sanitized CSS" for TemplateStyles (current model is "Scribunto").
  3. ↑ "Exclusive: Zac Goldsmith To Resign Over Heathrow".Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css must have content model "Sanitized CSS" for TemplateStyles (current model is "Scribunto").
  4. ↑ "If Zac Goldsmith is standing again, what is the point of his resignation? - Coffee House". 25 October 2016. Retrieved 26 October 2016.Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css must have content model "Sanitized CSS" for TemplateStyles (current model is "Scribunto").
  5. ↑ Elgot, Jessica; Mason, Rowena; Topham, Gwyn (25 October 2016). "Zac Goldsmith to resign as Tory MP after Heathrow go ahead" – via The Guardian.Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css must have content model "Sanitized CSS" for TemplateStyles (current model is "Scribunto").
  6. ↑ "Conservatives vow not to field candidate in by-election after MP quits". 25 October 2016. Retrieved 26 October 2016.Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css must have content model "Sanitized CSS" for TemplateStyles (current model is "Scribunto").
  7. ↑ {{URL|example.com|optional display text}}
  8. ↑ "Zac Goldsmith resigns as Tory MP over Heathrow runway decision". Retrieved 26 October 2016.Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css must have content model "Sanitized CSS" for TemplateStyles (current model is "Scribunto").
  9. ↑ October 25, 2016 17:38 BST (2016-10-25). "Richmond Park by-election: Tories face 'knife-edge' vote if they challenge Zac Goldsmith". Ibtimes.co.uk. Retrieved 2016-10-30.Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css must have content model "Sanitized CSS" for TemplateStyles (current model is "Scribunto").
  10. ↑ "Lib Dems' Sarah Olney to fight Zac Goldsmith in Richmond Park byelection". 30 October 2016 – via The Guardian.Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css must have content model "Sanitized CSS" for TemplateStyles (current model is "Scribunto").
  11. ↑ "Sarah Olney - A fresh new voice for Richmond Park & North Kingston". libdems.org.uk. 26 July 2016. Retrieved 2016-10-30.Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css must have content model "Sanitized CSS" for TemplateStyles (current model is "Scribunto").
  12. ↑ "Lewis, Nandy and Reynolds: Let's make this a referendum on Goldsmith, not Heathrow". LabourList. 2016-10-26. Retrieved 2016-10-30.Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css must have content model "Sanitized CSS" for TemplateStyles (current model is "Scribunto").
  13. ↑ Jessica Elgot. "Labour frontbenchers urge party not to contest Richmond Park byelection | Politics". The Guardian. Retrieved 2016-10-30.Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css must have content model "Sanitized CSS" for TemplateStyles (current model is "Scribunto").
  14. ↑ Paul Waugh Executive Editor, Politics, HuffingtonPost UK (2016-10-26). "Labour WILL Stand A Candidate In Richmond Park By-Election Despite Pleas To Step Aside For Lib Dems". Huffington Post. Retrieved 2016-10-30.CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css must have content model "Sanitized CSS" for TemplateStyles (current model is "Scribunto").
  15. ↑ "Labour spoilt for choice between Corbynite Mason and Blairite Baldrick"
  16. ↑ "#SackZac in the Richmond Park by-election on 1st December"
  17. ↑ October 27, 2016 14:23 BST. "Richmond Park by-election: Greens consider not standing in bid to defeat Zac Goldsmith". Ibtimes.co.uk. Retrieved 2016-10-30.Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css must have content model "Sanitized CSS" for TemplateStyles (current model is "Scribunto").
  18. ↑ "backs Goldsmith on his Heathrow stance". UKIP. Retrieved 2016-10-30.Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css must have content model "Sanitized CSS" for TemplateStyles (current model is "Scribunto").
  19. ↑ "Heathrow And The Turbulent Politics For The Tory Party". 25 October 2016. Retrieved 26 October 2016.Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css must have content model "Sanitized CSS" for TemplateStyles (current model is "Scribunto").
  20. ↑ "Sarah Olney to fight Richmond by-election for Lib Dems"
  21. ↑ Read. "The LibDems will make the Richmond Park by-election into a referendum on Brexit | Coffee House". Blogs.spectator.co.uk. Retrieved 2016-10-30.Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css must have content model "Sanitized CSS" for TemplateStyles (current model is "Scribunto").
  22. ↑ Hanretty, Chris (29 June 2016). "The EU referendum: how did Westminster constituencies vote?". Retrieved 26 October 2016.Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css must have content model "Sanitized CSS" for TemplateStyles (current model is "Scribunto").
  23. ↑ "Who'll win the Richmond Park by-election?". Retrieved 26 October 2016.Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css must have content model "Sanitized CSS" for TemplateStyles (current model is "Scribunto").
  24. ↑ Wednesday 26 Oct 2016 Can Zac Goldsmith hold back Lib Dems? (2016-10-26). "Can Zac Goldsmith hold back Lib Dems? | Gary Gibbon on Politics". Blogs.channel4.com. Retrieved 2016-10-30.Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css must have content model "Sanitized CSS" for TemplateStyles (current model is "Scribunto").
  25. ↑ Peston on Sunday, 30 October 2016, ITV
  26. ↑ Wednesday 26 Oct 2016 Can Zac Goldsmith hold back Lib Dems? (2016-10-26). "Can Zac Goldsmith hold back Lib Dems? | Gary Gibbon on Politics". Blogs.channel4.com. Retrieved 2016-10-30.Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css must have content model "Sanitized CSS" for TemplateStyles (current model is "Scribunto").
  27. ↑ Allen, Gavin (2016-10-25). "Everything you need to know about Zac Goldsmith's resignation and what it means for the country - Mirror Online". Mirror.co.uk. Retrieved 2016-10-30.Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css must have content model "Sanitized CSS" for TemplateStyles (current model is "Scribunto").
  28. ↑ PIPPA CRERAR, NIcholas Cecil. "Zac Goldsmith: I've not got a racist bone in my body, Sadiq Khan's team 'outplayed' us | London Evening Standard". Standard.co.uk. Retrieved 2016-10-30.Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css must have content model "Sanitized CSS" for TemplateStyles (current model is "Scribunto").
  29. ↑ "Evening Standard/BMG Constituency Poll: Richmond Park by-election voting intention and key issue results". bmgresearch.co.uk. 28 October 2016. Retrieved 2016-10-30.Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css must have content model "Sanitized CSS" for TemplateStyles (current model is "Scribunto").
  30. ↑ "Revised estimates of leave vote in Westminster constituencies". Retrieved 26 October 2016.Page Module:Citation/CS1/styles.css must have content model "Sanitized CSS" for TemplateStyles (current model is "Scribunto").
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